According to @WhiteHouse, the White House X account relayed that President Donald J. Trump accused Democrats of using a Jeffrey Epstein hoax to distract and referenced a shutdown on Nov 12, 2025, source: White House X post. For traders, a U.S. government funding lapse would constrain the SEC and CFTC to essential functions and suspend most registration and review work, potentially delaying digital-asset ETF reviews and rulemaking timelines, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Operations Plan Under a Lapse in Appropriations; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Procedures Relating to a Lapse in Appropriations. Past shutdowns weighed on near-term growth and confidence, with the 2018-2019 episode causing an estimated permanent output loss of about 3 billion dollars and depressing quarterly GDP before a rebound, source: Congressional Budget Office 2019 report on the economic effects of the partial shutdown. Policy uncertainty typically rises around shutdown headlines and has coincided with higher market volatility, which can pressure risk assets and widen spreads, source: Baker, Bloom and Davis U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index research. Given the increased correlation between crypto and equities since 2020, BTC and ETH are likely to mirror broader risk sentiment during shutdown-related volatility, underscoring the need to monitor liquidity, funding rates, and basis, source: Bank for International Settlements research on rising crypto-equity correlation in 2022.

According to @cryptorover, a U.S. government shutdown is now expected to last into mid to late November. According to the U.S. SEC Operations Plan for a Lapse in Appropriations, most registrations, rulemakings, examinations, and normal enforcement are paused during a shutdown, which can delay reviews of exchange and ETF filings related to digital assets (source: U.S. SEC). According to the CFTC contingency plan for a lapse in appropriations, the agency maintains only essential market surveillance and enforcement, reducing routine oversight of crypto-linked futures and options (source: CFTC). According to the Federal Reserve, the Fed continues normal operations during a government shutdown because it is not funded by congressional appropriations (source: Federal Reserve). According to the U.S. Treasury, debt management operations financed by permanent appropriations, including marketable securities auctions and payments, continue during a shutdown (source: U.S. Treasury). According to the SEC and CFTC plans, timing of regulatory actions may be delayed, while, according to the Federal Reserve, monetary operations continue.

According to the source, a U.S. federal government shutdown would put the SEC on a limited-operations plan where most routine reviews and accelerations pause while EDGAR remains available for filings, per the SEC Operations Plan Under a Lapse in Appropriations. For pending crypto ETFs, exchange rule changes (Form 19b-4) are governed by statutory timelines measured from Federal Register publication; under Exchange Act Section 19(b)(2), the Commission must approve or disapprove within up to 240 days or the proposal is deemed approved, per the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Federal Register. Spot BTC or ETH commodity-trust ETFs also require an effective registration statement before shares can be offered; during shutdown plans, the Division of Corporation Finance indicates it cannot review or accelerate effectiveness, which can delay timing, per the SEC Operations Plan and Securities Act Section 8(a). Listing can occur only when both the 19b-4 exchange rule change is approved and the issuer’s registration statement is effective, as reflected in the SEC’s January 10, 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF approval orders, per the SEC Order Approving Spot Bitcoin ETFs and related issuer filings.